CBOoya
Booya, CBO
During President Obama’s healthcare speech in front of Congress, he invoked what David Brooks referred to as the “Dime Standard.” Obama stated: “I will not sign a plan that adds one dime to our deficits – either now or in the future. Period.” Brooks notes that, assuming Obama is serious about this pledge, that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) will serve as the final arbiter in deciding whether the bill is deficit-neutral. The CBO is an independent agency enacted by the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974.
What’s interesting here is the relationship between moral theory, social ideology, and facts. “Facts are facts,” one might say, but if you believe that, send me $15 and I’ll give you the rights to Business.com. Bias-free factual inquiry, when the viability of one’s political agenda depends upon a certain conclusion to that inquiry, is more or less impossible. One might argue that the incentive structure of elections demands that politicians base their policies on the right facts: If the facts are wrong, the policies will fail, and the politicians will lose their election.
The problem with this is that by the time the policy has been deemed a success or failure, the election will be over and, more importantly, both sides can use their own set of facts and economic or other theories to justify why the success or failure was in fact a vindication of their ideology, and a repudiation of the other guy’s.
Consider the lack of consensus on whether liberals or conservatives are better on purely empirical economic issues; pick one single, small economic question and there will be no consensus, even though the question is entirely empirical. I suppose there is macro-consensus on, say, capitalism of some sort.
In the end of a policy debate that depends upon predicting future economic and empirical questions (to say nothing of the moral issues), everything is confused, nobody knows who or what to believe, people argue more on the basis of bedrock moral intuitions and BS, cynicism ensues, anger ensues, television shows get cancelled, the Knicks continue to suck, etc.
The deeper point here is (a) we want good policies, (b) good policies depend upon good facts, (c) we want democracy, but (d) elected representatives often distort facts due to the structure of the system and because they might be bad people.
They say alcoholics have moments of clarity. Sometimes, during these lucid periods, the alcoholic may make it harder or impossible for him to get alcohol, say, by placing a sibling in charge of her bank account. In 1974, Congress had a similar moment when it established the CBO. Independent agencies are useful because they are divorced from the pressures of elections. They are calm. They have expertise. They have a culture of neutrality and analytical excellence.
Imagine how impossible it would be for Obama to be held genuinely to account on his Dime Standard pledge without the existence of the CBO. He could claim fealty to the standard no matter what bill passed, simply by virtue of fancy economic analysis and projections. And the same holds to the Republicans visions of economic doom.
Some questions: Democrats and Republicans have very smart economists working for them. What is the CBO doing that they are not? At what level in the equation and how does bias come into play? To what extent is bias in economic analysis intentional? Is there consensus on what the contentious areas are?
-Jake
Related posts:
- Assessing Obama
- Voters and values
- Untramelled Liberty = Community?
- Is “passing the buck” immoral?
- Obama’s pragmatism
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