Is Iran a weak competitive authoritarian regime?

What the current election tells us about the Iranian regime

The Monkey Cage explored what category the Iranian regime can be placed into — democratic, authoritarian, or competitive authoritarian (in which elections occur but the results are not free nor fair).  Joshua Tucker asks:

But what happens if the opposition candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi, wins the election and the authorities respect the results? After all, it has happened before in Iran with the election of Mohammed Khatami in 1997. What exactly do we call Iran then? Does a simple authoritarian-theocracy capture it? Or does that miss the fact that apparently competitive elections can and do occur in this country, even if they are in many ways limited (but not completely controlled) by the authorities?


Events have, of course, demonstrated with a high degree of probability that the results have not been free nor fair, putting Iran squarely in the “competitive authoritarian” category.  The key question will be whether the extensive protests (and possibly international pressure) will be sufficient to change the results.

One can imagine further sub-categorizing into strong and weak competitive authoritarian regime types.   In a strong regime, the unelected leadership will defend their interests regardless of the consequences; they likely view the results of a given election as absolutely critical to their own survival.  Weak competitive authoritarian regimes would be more likely to let elections slide when faced with a more moderate opposition candidate.  As Tucker points out, the fact that the Iranian leadership allowed an opposition candidate to take power in 1997 suggests that this is the correct category.  Additionally, Khamenei has approved an investigation into election results, a good sign of a weak authoritarian regime.  (Of course, time will tell whether the process and result of this investigation are satisfactory.)

-John

Related posts:

  1. What to watch for in Iran
  2. Can you have a republican, religious state?
  3. Explaining the diversity of views on Iran
  4. Iran: The Times They Are A-Changin’
  5. Obama and the Iranian election

June 16, 2009 · Filed Under Foreign politics, International Relations, John

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    Jacob Bronsther is a law student at NYU, a former Fulbright Scholar to Mauritius, and a graduate of Cornell University. He has an MPhil in Political Theory from the University of Oxford.

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